The main purpose of this course is to teach the principles of earth systems modeling.

No analysis of a real-world problem is possible without of developing a formal simplified description of the system that we attempt to study. Such formalization is called a model. The models are the instruments of choice for exploring hypothesis and aiding decision-making in any area of resource management, environmental geophysics, applied ecology, etc. This course will provide the students with the expertise required to understand and build their own models, and to use the models to explore the ideas in ecology, resource management and environmental science.

We will start with a discussion of the objective and general philosophy of modeling – what is a model? What we are able to accomplish building the models? What are the main objectives of model development? The students will learn the main steps of model development: building a conceptual model, formalization, identification, validation, running the model, results analysis. We will cover several fundamental modeling approaches including statistical models, differential and difference equations, compartment models, and spatially explicit modeling that will allow acquiring advanced approaches in the future.

During the course we will explore a variety of types of models, learn how to formulate and build a computer model, and analyze the behavior and validity of models. We will first discuss modeling the abiotic systems – physical processes and their interaction, with focuses on radiative transfer of solar energy, radiative forcing and feedback, energy and mass transfer. Then we will concentrate on modeling biotic system, concentrating on simulation of population dynamics. After that, we will briefly discuss modeling of social systems and integration of different types of models. Finally, we will introduce the concepts of model developing cycle and analysis of model uncertainty.

Objectives

By the end of the course, students should be able to:

• Define what a simulation model is and identify different types of models;
• Understand the strength and pitfalls of models and their appropriate application to environmental and resource management problems;
• Conceptualize and formulate simple dynamic models;
• Produce a simulation model and analyze its behavior;
• Perform sensitivity analysis on a simulation model

Prerequisites

No previous modeling or programming experience is necessary, but basic computer and mathematical skills are essential. We will analyze simple differential equations, so a familiarity with calculus (functions, graphing, differentiation, and integration) will be required. We will also discuss models based on statistics, so students need to have a basic knowledge in statistics. In addition, the students should feel comfortable in discussing topics in applied ecology and environmental science.

Course format

Lecture: twice a week, 1h 20min.

Office Hours:

Tuesday and Thursday, immediately after class, or by appointment.

Homework

Due one week after it has been assigned andhas to be turned in before the class starts.

Additional reading

• Kump L.R., Kasting J.F., Grane R.G. The Earth System. Good introductory book.
• Case T.J., 2000. An Illustrated guide to Theoretical Ecology. Very good introductory text on modeling population dynamics. Those willing to learn mathematics of the models we will study in class will find this book very useful.
• Haefner, J.W., 2005. Modeling biological systems: principles and applications. More advanced reading, wide range of modeling approaches. Good supplement to (Case, 2000).
• Copies of other relevant publications will be provided.

Class policies

Class discussion is encouraged. Please feel free to ask questions during or after class, or send an email. No food in class, no drinks except water.